Financial crisis, migration and elections in Spain, Italy, Germany and France (2004-2019)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24201/fi.v62i2.2817Keywords:
majority parties, sovereign debt, migration crisis, elections, European UnionAbstract
Over the 2004-2019 period, the largest countries in the European Union experienced two phases of major electoral difficulties that proved unfavorable to the majority parties. Firstly, the sovereign debt crisis and the euro crisis of 2009-2012, and the subsequent application of severe austerity policies. Secondly, the political ramifications of the refugee and migrant crisis in 2015-2016. These problems of supranational scope required the European Commission to agree on measures that, in principle, should be applied by national governments. This caused internal conflicts, which let to reverses in the elections at the cost of the national rulers and their parties, clearing a significant electoral space that was occupied by other parties and resulting in changes to the makeup of their party systems.
Downloads
References
ALVAREDO, Facundo, Lucas CHANCEL, Thomas PIKETTY, Emmanuel SÁEZ y Gabriel ZUCMAN, World Inequality Report 2018, World Inequality Lab, 2018, https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-full-report-english.pdf (consulta del 23 de septiembre de 2019).
ARZHEIMER, Kai, “The AfD: Finally, a Successful Right-Wing Populist Eurosceptic Party for Germany?”, West European Politics, vol. 38, núm. 3, 2015, pp. 535-556.
BARTOLINI, Stefano, “La Structure des Clivages Nationaux et la Question de l’Intégration dans l’Union Européenne”, Politique Européenne, 2002, 3, núm. 4, pp. 15-45.
BARTOLINI, Stefano, “La formation des clivages”, Revue Internationale de Politique Comparée, 2005, vol. 12, núm.1, pp. 9-34.
BARTOLINI, Stefano, “A Comparative Political Approach to the EU Formation”, Working Paper 04, Arena, Centre for European Studies, University of Oslo, http://www.arena.uio.no
BERSHIDSKY, Leonid, “How Merkel Put Down the Bavarian Rebellion”, Bloomberg, 3 de julio de 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-03/how-merkel-put-down-the-bavarian-rebellion (consulta del 5 de julio de 2018).
BENTOLILA, Samuel, Juan DOLADO y Juan JIMENO, “The Spanish labour market: Avery costly insider-outsider divide”, VoxEU, CEPR, https://voxeu.org/article/jobless-spain-what-can-be-done-about-insider-outsider-divide (consulta 23 de octubre de 2018).
BLANCHET, Thomas, Lucas CHANCEL y Amory GETHIN, “Forty years of inequality in Europe: Evidence from distributional national accounts”, VoxEU, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Londres, 2019, https://voxeu.org/article/forty-years-inequality-europe (consulta del 24 de abril de 2019).
BUBBICO, Rocco y Leon FRAYTAG, Inequality in Europe, European Investment Bank, 2018, https://www.eib.org/attachments/efs/econ_inequality_in_europe_en.pdf (consulta del 23 de septiembre de 2019).
CARBALLO-CRUZ, Francisco, “Causes and Consequences of the Spanish Economic Crisis”, Panoeconomicus, núm. 3, 2011, pp. 309-328.
CAUTRÈS, Bruno y Anne MUXEL, Histoire d’une révolution électorale (2015-2018), París, Garnier, 2019, 308 pp.
DOMINGO, Elena, “Estructuras e Impactos Socio-políticos del Movimiento 15M”, comunicación en el Congreso de la Federación Española de Sociología, Madrid, julio de 2013, www.fes-sociologia.com/files/congress/11/papers/2296.pdf (consulta del 4 de marzo de 2018).
DOSTAL, Jörg, “The German Federal Election 2017: How the wedge issue of Refugees and Migration Took the Shine off Chancellor Merkel and Transformed the Party System”, The Political Quarterly, vol. 88, núm. 4, octubre-diciembre de 2017, pp. 589-602.
DOWNS, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Democracy, Nueva York, Harper, 1957, 310 pp.
DUDASOVA, Marianna, “Political consequences of refugee crisis. The case of Germany”, Economic Review, Bratislava, vol. 45, núm. 3, 2016, pp. 312-330.
EASO-European Asylum Support Office, Annual Report on the Situation of Asylum in the European Union 2015, 2016, http://www.europeanmigrationlaw.eu/documents/EASO-annual-report-2015.pdf (consulta del 15 de mayo de 2019).
EASO-European Asylum Support Office, Annual Report on the Situation of Asylum in the European Union 2016, 2017, http://www.european migrationlaw.eu/documents/EASO-annual-report-2016.pdf (consulta 15 de mayo de 2019).
Eurostat, Asylum applications (non-EU) in the EU-28 Member States, 2006–2017, Eurostat Statistics. Explained Asylum Statistics, 2018, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_statistics#Number _of_asylum_applicants: _drop _in_2017 (consulta del 15 de mayo de 2019).
FABBRINI, Sergio, “The Transformation of Italian Democracy”, Bulletin of Italian Politics, vol. 1, 2009, pp. 29-47.
Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Spain:2010 Article IV Consultation, Country Report 10/254, julio de 2010.
Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Spain Selected Issues, Country Report No. 11/216, julio de 2011.
FOURQUET, Jerôme, “Qui sont les français qui soutiennent Emmanuel Macron?”, Slate, febrero de 2017, http://www.slate.fr /story/136919/français-marchent-macron
Frontex, Risk Analysis for 2018, European Border and Coast Guard Agency, 2018, https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf (consulta 15 de mayo de 2019).
FUNK, Lothar, The German Economy during the Financial and Economic Crisis since 2008/2009, Berlín, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2012, 45 pp.
GUILLUY, Christophe, Fractures Françaises, París, François Buran, 2010, 254 pp.
IAMMARINO, Simona, Andrés RODRÍGUEZ-POSE y Michael STORPER, Regional inequality in Europe: Evidence, theory and policy implications, VoxEU, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Londres, 2018, https://voxeu.org/article /regional-inequality-europe (consulta del 15 de julio de 2018).
Infratest Dimap, WahlReport Bundestagswahl. Eine Analyse der Wahl, 24 de septiembre de 2017, https://www.infratest-dimap.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Wahlreport_BTW17_Leseprobe.pdf (consulta 6 de octubre 2017).
International Labor Organization (ILO), Global Wage Report 2012-2013, http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/ publication/wcms_194843.pdf (consulta del 21 de abril de 2018).
International Organization for Migration (IOM), World Migration Report 2015, https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/2015 (consulta 15 de mayo de 2019).
International Organization for Migration (IOM), World Migration Report 2018, https://www.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl486/files/country/docs/china/r5_world_migration_report_2018_en.pdf (consulta del 15 de mayo de 2019).
KATZ, Richard y Peter MEIR, “Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy. The Emergence of the Cartel Party”, Party Politics, Londres, Sage Publications, vol. 1, núm. 1, 1995, pp. 5-28.
KATZ, Richard y Peter MEIR, Democracy and the cartelization of political parties, Oxford, University Press, 2018.
LOBERA, Josep, “De Movimientos a Partidos: La Cristalización Electoral de la Protesta”, Revista Española de Sociología, num. 24, 2015, pp. 97-105.
LOBERA, Josep y Jesús ROGERO-GARCÍA, “Medición de la Cristalización Electoral de un Movimiento de Protesta: de la Indignación al Voto”, Empiria. Revista de Metodología de Ciencias Sociales, núm. 38, septiembre-diciembre de 2017, pp. 151-176.
MARZOLF, Hedwig, “"¿Enemigos o colegas? El 15M y la hipótesis Podemos”, Empiria. Revista de Metodología de Ciencias Sociales, enero-abril de 2016, pp. 89-110.
MASTROLILLI, Paolo, “L’ex ministro Usa: funzionari europei ci proposero di far cadere Silvio”, La Stampa, 13 de mayo de 2014, https://www.lastampa.it /2014/05/13/italia/politica/lex-ministro-usa-funzionari-europei-ci-proposero-di-far-cadere-silvio-2G5osoGKsV8e1rtWqD95RJ/pagina.html (consulta 4 de julio de 2018).
MINGUIJÓN, Jaime y David PAC, “La primavera española del movimiento 15M”, Política y Gobierno, vol. XX, núm. 2, 2013, pp. 359-389.
Ministerio del Interior del Reino de España, Consulta de Resultados Electorales, http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/ infoelectoral/min/ (consulta del 6 de febrero de 2018).
Ministerio del Interior de la República Francesa, Résultats des élections presidentielles, https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/ Elections/Les-resultats /Presidentielles/ (6 de febrero de 2018).
Ministerio del Interior de la República Italiana, Dipartamento per gli Affari Interni e Territoriali, Archivio storico delle elezioni, http://elezionistorico.interno.gov.it/ (6 de febrero de 2018).
MORLINO, Leonardo, Crisis of Parties and Change of Party System in Italy, Working Paper 77, Madrid, Juan March Institute, 1996.
MOSSUZ-LAVAU, Janine, Le clivage droite-gauche. Toute une historie, París, Presses de SciencesPo, 2020, 176 pp.
NEAL, Larry y Concepción GARCÍA-IGLESIAS, The economy of Spain in the eurozone before and after the crisis of 2008, MPRA paper 37008, febrero de 2012, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de /37008/ (consulta del 27 de abril de 2018).
NELSON, Rebecca et al., The Eurozone Crisis: Overview and Issues for Congress, Report for Congress, Congressional Research Service, Washington, septiembre de 2012.
Oficina Federal de Resultados (Der Bundeswahlleiter) de la República Federal de Alemania, Bundestag Election. Results, https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/ (consulta del 15 de octubre de 2017).
PACHECO, Guadalupe, “La integración de la Unión Europea, las crisis financieras y del euro, y los sistemas nacionales de partidos”, Veredas. Revista del Pensamiento Sociológico, año 21, núm. 41, 2020, pp. 46-68.
PACHECO, Guadalupe, “La crisis de los sistemas tradicionales de partidos y el ascenso del populismo en la Unión Europea”, Argumentos. Estudios críticos de la sociedad, año 33, núm. 94, 2020, pp. 293-319.
PERRINEAU, Pascal (ed.), La Décision électorale en 2012, París, Armand Colin, 2013, 223 pp.
RODRÍGUEZ-POSE, Andrés, “The revenge of the places that don’t matter (and what to do about it)”, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, vol. 11, núm. 1, 2017, pp. 189-209.
ROSNICK, David y Weisbrot MARK, Has Austerity Worked in Spain?, Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2015, https://cepr.net/documents/Spain-2015-12.pdf (consulta del 23 de octubre de 2018).
ROYO, Sebastián, After austerity: lessons from the Spanish experience, Real Instituto Elcano, Working Paper 11/2014, septiembre de 2014.
RYNER, Magnus y Alan CAFRUNY, The European Union and the Global Capitalism. Origins, Development, Crisis, Londres, Palgrave MacMillan, 2017, 271 pp.
SARTORI, Giovanni, Partidos y Sistemas de Partidos, 1, Madrid, Alianza, 1980, 414 pp.
Sciences Po CEVIPOF, L’Enquête Electorale Francaise: Comprendre 2017, vague 14, mayo de 2017, en colaboración con Ipsos y Le Monde.
SOLA, Alessandro, The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany: Concerns about Immigration and Populism, SOEP papers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research at DIW Berlin, núm. 266, 2018.
SPIRE, Alexis, “Aux sources de la colère contre l'impôt”, Le Monde Diplomatique, diciembre de 2018.
TOYGUR, Ilke, A guide to understanding Italy: the 2018 elections and beyond, Madrid, Real Instituto Elcano, Madrid, 2018, https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/a-guide-to-understanding-italy-the-2018-elections-and-beyond/ (consulta del 27 de marzo de 2018).
VAROUFAKIS, Yanis, Adults in the Room. My battle with the European and American Deep Establishmenet, Nueva York, Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2017, 550 pp.
VEGETTI, Federico, Monica POLETTI y Paolo SEGHATTI, “When responsability is blurred. Italian national elections in times of econommic crisis, technocratic government, and ever growing populism”, Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, vol. XLIII, núm. 3, diciembre de 2013, pp. 329-352.
