Approving the President. A comparison between Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24201/fi.v58i4.2548Keywords:
Presidential approval ratings, president, popularity, Calderón, Peña NietoAbstract
Public approval for the President plays a fundamental role in the power and legitimacy he enjoys and in the potential success of his policy decisions. This paper analyzes and compares the factors determining the presidential approval of two Mexican presidents: Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto. The data I use are taken from two series of the Survey of the Americas 2008 and 2014. Among the most important findings I find that, on the one hand, the issues that prevailed in the press (which to some extent are the same as those that predominated in presidential speeches) coincide significantly with those that citizens perceive as the most important issues for them. On the other, even with different presidents, in different situations, economic issues are the ones that weigh most heavily in the evaluation of their performance. However, the issues of insecurity and corruption appear and remain during the two six-year terms in office as issues that continue to have a significant effect on the presidential approval rating.
Downloads
References
Anderson, Cameron D. y Laura B. Stephenson (eds.), Voting Behaviour in Canada, Vancouver, UBC Press, 2010.
Beltrán, Ulises, “Aprobación presidencial: ¿honestidad o eficiencia económica?”, Nexos (en línea), junio de 2015, en http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=24988
Brace, Paul y Barbara Hinckley, Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and the Modern Presidents, Nueva York, Basic Books, 1992.
_____ y _____, “Presidential Activities from Truman through Reagan: Timing and Impact”, Journal of Politics, vol. 55, núm. 2, 1993, pp. 382-398.
Brody, Richard, Assesing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support, Stanford, CA, University Press, 1991.
Buendía, Jorge, “Economic Reform, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval in Mexico, 1988-1993”, Comparative Political Studies, vol. 29, núm. 5, 1996, pp. 566-591.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice y Kenneth W. Shotts, “The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion”, ponencia presentada en la Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2002.
Clarcke, Harold D. y Marianne C. Stewart, “Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The «Bankers» Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 38, núm. 4, 1994, pp. 1104-1123.
Davis, Charles y Ronald E. Langley, “Presidential Popularity in a Context of Economic Crisis and Political Change: The Case of Mexico”, Studies in Comparative International Development, vol. 30, núm. 3, 1995, pp. 24-48.
Edwards III, Georges C., William Mitchel y Reed Welch, “Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 39, núm. 1, 1995, pp. 108-134.
_____ y Tami Swenson, “Who Rallies? The Anatomy of a Rally Event”, Journal of Politics, vol. 59, núm. 1, 1997, pp. 200-212.
Greene, Steven, “The Role of Character Assessments in Presidential Approval”, American Politics Research, vol. 29, núm. 2, 2001, pp. 196-210.
Gronke, Paul y Brian Newman, “fdr to Clinton, Mueller to? A «State of the Discipline» Review of Presidential Approval”, ponencia presentada en la Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, agosto 31-septiembre 3, 2000, pp. 1-38.
Gronke, Paul y Brian Newman, “fdr to Clinton, Mueller to? A Field Essay on Presidential Approval”, Political Research Quarterly, vol. 56, núm. 4, 2003, pp. 501-512.
_____, Jeffrey Koch y J. Matthew Wilson, “Follow the Leader? Presidential Approval, Perceived Presidential Support, and Representatives’ Electoral Fortunes”, Journal of Politics, vol. 65, núm. 3, 2003, pp. 785-808.
Higgins, Tory E. y G. King, “Accessibility of Social Constructs: Information-Processing Consequences of Individual and Contextual Variability”, en Nancy Cantor y John Kihlstrom (eds.), Personality, Cognition, and Social Interaction, Hillsdale, NJ, Erlbaum, 1981.
Iyengar, Shanto, Is Anyone Responsible? How Television Frames Political Issues, Chicago, University Press, 1991.
_____, Mark D. Peters y Donald R. Kinder, “Experimental Demonstrations of the «Not-So-Minimal» Consequences of Television News Programs”, American Political Science Review, vol. 76, núm. 4, 1982, pp. 848-858.
_____ y Donald R. Kinder, News that Matters, Chicago, University Press, 1987.
Kernell, Samuel, Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership, Washington, DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 3a ed., 1997.
King, Gary y Lyn Ragsdale, The Elusive Executive, Washington, DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1988.
MacKuen, Michael B. y Stephen L. Coombs, More than News, Beberly Hills, Sage, 1981.
_____, Robert S. Erikson y James A. Stimson, “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy”, American Political Science Review, vol. 86, núm. 3, 1992, pp. 596-611.
Moreno, Alejandro, Confianza en las instituciones: México en perspectiva comparada, México, CESOP-Cámara de Diputados LXI Legislatura, 1997.
Mutz, Diana C., “Contextualizing Personal Experience: The Role of the Mass Media”, Journal of Politics, vol. 56, núm. 3, 1994, pp. 689-714.
Newman, Brian y Charles W. Ostrom Jr., “Explaining Seat Changes in the US House of Representatives: 1950-1998”, Legislative Studies Quarterly, vol. 27, núm. 3, 2002, pp. 383-405.
Norpoth, Helmut, “Presidents and the Prospective Voter”, Journal of Politics, vol. 58, núm. 3, 1996, pp. 776-792.
Ortega, Reynaldo, Ma. Fernanda Somuano y Andrés Ruiz, “Partisan Identity and Democracy in the Mexican States”, en Salvador Martí, Reynaldo Ortega, Ma. Fernanda Somuano y Claire Wright (eds.), Democracy in Mexico. Attitudes and perceptions of citizens at national and local level, Londres, Institute of Latin American Studies, 2014.
_____ y Ma. Fernanda Somuano, Confianza y cambio político en México: contiendas electorales y el ife, México, El Colegio de México, 2015.
Ostrom, Charles W. y Dennis M. Simon, “Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity”, American Political Science Review, vol. 79, núm. 2, 1985, pp. 334-358.
Page, Benjamin I. y Robert Y. Shapiro, The Rational Public, Chicago, University Press, 1992.
Peffley, Mark, Ronald E. Langley y Robert Kirby Goidel, “Public Responses to the Presidential Use of Military Force: A Panel Analysis”, Political Behavior, vol. 17, núm. 3, 1995, pp. 307-337.
Ragsdale, Lyn, “The Politics of Presidential Speechmaking, 1949-1980”, American Political Science Review, vol. 78, núm. 4, 1984, pp. 971-984.
Romero, Vidal, Impacto de la evaluación de políticas públicas en la evaluación presidencial, tesis, México, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (itam), 2000.
_____, “Impacto de los temas de seguridad pública en la aprobación presidencial”, Política y gobierno, vol. temático: Desafíos de la política mexicana, 2013, pp. 139-160.
_____, B. Magaloni y A. Díaz-Calleros, “Presidential Approval and Public Security in Mexico’s War on Crime”, Latin American Politics and Society, vol. 58, núm. 2, 2016, pp. 100-123.
Scheufele, Dietram y David Tewksbury, “Framing, Agenda Setting and Priming: The Evolution of Three Media Effects Models”, Journal of Communication, vol. 57, núm. 1, 2007, pp. 9-20.
Sigelman, Lee, “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections”, Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 43, núm. 4, 1979, pp. 532-534.
Simon, Dennis M. y Charles W. Ostrom Jr., “The Impact of Televised Speeches and Foreign Travel on Presidential Approval”, Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 53, núm. 1, 1989, pp. 58-82.
Singer, Matthew M., “«Defendamos lo que hemos logrado». El voto económico en México durante la elección presidencial de 2006”, Política y gobierno, vol. temático: Elecciones en México, 2009, pp. 199-235.
_____, “Who Says «It’s the Economy»? Cross-National and Cross Individual Variation in the Salience of Economic Performance”, Comparative Political Studies, vol. 44, núm. 3, 2011, pp. 284-312.
_____, “Economic Voting in an Era of Non-Crisis: The Changing Electoral Agenda in Latin America 1982-2010”, Comparative Politics, vol. 45, núm. 2, 2013, pp. 169-185.
Sniderman, Paul, “The New Look in Public Opinion Research”, en Ada Finifter (ed.), Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, Washington, DC, American Political Science Association, 1993, pp. 219-246.
Taylor, Shelley E. y Susan Fiske, “Salience, Attention, and Attribution: Top of the Head Phenomena”, en Leonard Berkowitz (ed.), Advances in Social Psychology, Nueva York, Academic Press, 1978, pp. 249-288.
Tesser, Abraham, “Self-Generated Attitude Change”, en Leonard Berkowitz (ed.), Advances in Social Psychology, Nueva York, Academic Press, 1978, pp. 289-338.
Tversky, Amos y Daniel Kahneman, “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice”, en Robin Hogarth (ed.), Question Framing and Response Consistency, San Francisco, Jossey-Bass, 1982.
Villarreal, Andrés, “Public Opinion of the Economy and the President during the Salinas Sexenio: The Role of Mass Media”, documento preparado para la reunión de LASA en Washington, DC, septiembre de 1995.
Zaller, John y Stanley Feldman, “A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 36, núm. 3, 1992, pp. 579-616.
Zizumbo-Colunga Daniel y Belinda Amador, “Corupción en México”, en V. Romero, P. Parás, G. Pizzolito y E. Zechmeister (eds.), Cultura política de la democracia en México y en las Américas, 2016-2017, México, usaid-lapop, 2018, pp. 93-113.
