Economic Integration in North America and the Election of Donald Trump: A Prospective Analysis on the Future of nafta

Authors

  • Gustavo Vega Cánovas Centro de Estudios Internacionales, El Colegio de México
  • Francisco E. Campos Ortiz El Colegio de México

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24201/fi.v52i4.2470

Keywords:

NAFTA, North America, renegotiation, trade, investment

Abstract

This paper evaluates the international economic policy of the United States in the context of the administration of President Donald Trump. The paper analyzes the dissatisfaction with the process of globalization in the United States, the consequences of its abandonment of the Trans–Pacific Partnership Agreement and the potential scenarios raised by the imminent renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The main spheres and disciplines that need to be updated or added to the nafta are analyzed on the basis of international trends in trade and investment regulation in the twenty–first century

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Gustavo Vega Cánovas, Centro de Estudios Internacionales, El Colegio de México

Secretario General y Profesor–investigador
del Centro de Estudios Internacionales, El Colegio de México
(gvega@colmex.mx).

Francisco E. Campos Ortiz, El Colegio de México

Investigador Asociado, El Colegio de México

References

Acuerdo de Cooperación Ambiental entre Canadá, Estados Unidos y México,1993.

Acuerdo de Cooperación Laboral entre Canadá, Estados Unidos y Méxi-co,1993.

ADB: Asian Development Bank, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, Mandaluyong City, Philippines, ADB, 46ª ed., 2015.

Amiti, Mary, Caroline Freund y Tyler Bodine-Smith, “Why Renegotiating nafta Could Disrupt Supply Chains”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 18 de abril de 2017, en https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/why-renegotiating-nafta-could-dis-rupt-supply-chains APEC: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, “Declaración conjunta de los líderes del APEC”, Bogor, Indonesia, 15 de noviembre de 1994, en http://www.apec.org/Meeting-Papers/Lea-ders-Declarations/1994/1994_aelm.aspx

______ , “Leaders’ Declarations”, 2016, en http://www.apec.org/Mee-ting-Papers/Leaders-Declarations.aspx

Atkinson, Anthony B., “Setting the Scene”, en Inequality: What can be done?, Cambridge, MA,Harvard University Press, 2015, pp. 9-44.

Baldwin, Richard, “Big-Think Regionalism: A Critical Survey”, National Bureau of Economic Research, documento de trabajo, núm. 14056, junio de 2008.

______ y Patrick Low, Multilateralizing Regionalism: Challenges for the Global Trading System,Cambridge, University Press, 2008.

______ , “21st Century Regionalism: Filling the Gap between 21st Century Trade and 20th Century Trade Rules”, WTO Economic Research and Statistics Division, documento de trabajo ERSD-2011-08, 2011.

______, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 2016.

Bernanke, Ben, Essays on the Great Depression,Princeton, University Press, 2009.

Bishop, Doak, “Investor-State Dispute Settlement under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Have Negotiations Run Aground?”, ICSID Review, vol.30, núm. 1, 2015, pp. 1-9.

Black, Edward J. (presidente y ceo de Computer and Communications Industry Association), “Testimonio en la audiencia del subcomité de Comercio internacional, aduanas y competitividad global”, Comité de finanzas del Senado de Estados Unidos, 111ª sesión, 18 de noviembre de 2010.

Blackwell, Robert D. y Jennifer M. Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft, Cambridge, MA, Council on Foreign Relations-Harvard University Press, 2016.

Bolle, Mary Jane, “Overview of Labor Enforcement Issues in Free Trade Agreements”, Congressional Research Service, RS22823, febrero de 2016.

Bollyky, Thomas J., “Why U.S. Trade Deals Haven’t Exported U.S. Drug Prices”, Foreign Affairs, 23 de marzo de 2016, en http://www.foreig-naffairs.com

Branstetter, Lee, “TPP and the Conflict over Drugs: Incentives for Innovation versus Access to Medicines”, en Jeffrey J. Schott y Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs (eds.), Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Volume 2: Innovations and Trading Rules, Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE Briefing 16-4, 2016.

CIADI: Centro Internacional de Arreglo de Diferencias Relativas a Inver-siones, Metalclad vs. Estados Unidos Mexicanos,caso núm. ARB(AF)/ 97/1, agosto de 2000.

Cimino-Isaacs, Cathleen, “Labor Standards in the TPP”, en Jeffrey Schott y Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs (eds.), Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Volume 2: Innovations and Trading Rules, Peterson Institute for Interna-tional Economics, PIIE Briefing 16-4, 2016

Clarkson, Stephen, Does North America Exist? Governing the Continent after NAFTA and 9/11,Toronto, University Press, 2008.

Clinton, Hillary, “America’s Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, 11 de octubre de 2011, en http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific -century/

Cohen, Stephen D., The Making of the United States International Economic Policy: Principles, Problems, and Proposals for Reform, pref. de Paul Volcker, Westport, CT, Praeger, 5a ed., 2000.

______ , “Why and How Multinational Corporations Have Altered International Trade”, en Multinational Corporations and Foreign Direct Investment: Avoiding Simplicity, Embracing Complexity, Oxford, University Press, 2007, pp. 205-233.

Comisión Europea, “Online Public Consultation on Investment Protection and Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) in the TTIP”, documento SWD (2015) 3, 13 de enero de 2015, en http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/january/tradoc_153044.pdf

_______ , “La Comisión Europea y Estados Unidos acuerdan un nuevo marco para los flujos transatlánticos de datos”, 2 de febrero de 2016, en http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-216_es.htm

Comité de Finanzas (Senado de Estados Unidos), Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015. S. 995, 114 legislatura, 1ª sesión, 2015.

Deaton, Angus, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth and the Origins of Inequality, Princeton, University Press, 2013.

DeBonis, Mike, Ed O’Keefe y Ana Swanson, “The Trans-Pacific Partners-hip is dead, Schumer tells labor leaders”, Washington Post, 10 de noviembre de 2016, en https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/power post/wp/2016/11/10/the-trans-pacific-partnership-is-dead-schumer-tells-labor-leaders/, consultado el 11. XI.2016.

DiMascio, Nicholas y Joost Pauwelyn, “Nondiscrimination in Trade and Investment Treaties: Worlds Apart or Two Sides of the Same Coin?”, American Journal of International Law, vol. 102, núm. 1, 2008, pp. 48-89.

Dudek, Carolyn M., “Rhetoric and Reality: The Trade Challenge of Genetically Modified Organisms”, en Joaquín Roy y Roberto Domínguez (eds.), The TTIP: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States, Universidad de Miami, 2014, pp. 111-124.

Eaton, Jonathan, Samuel Kortum, Brent Neiman y John Romalis, “Trade and the Global Recession”, American Economic Review, vol. 106, núm. 11, 2016, pp. 3401-3438.

Elms, Deborah, “The Origins and Evolution of the Trans-Pacific Partner-ship (TPP) Trade Negotiations”, Asia Trade Center, enero de 2015.

“Enrique Peña Nieto está abierto a renegociar el TLC, como exige Trump”, Forbes, 24 de julio de 2016, en http://www.forbes.com.mx/enrique-pena-nieto-esta-abierto-a-renegociar-el-tlc-como-exige-trump/#gs.H61rmxc

“Entrevista a Wilbur Ross”, Wall Street Journal, 25 de abril de 2017, en http://www.wsj.com/video/renegotiating-nafta-rules-of-origin/CD898145-42FD-480B-86A5-67D13B0644FA.html

Estevadeordal, Antoni y Kati Suominen, “Rules of Origin in the World Trading System”, Seminar on Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO, WTO, 14 de noviembre de 2003, en https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/sem_nov03_e/estevadeordal_paper_e.pdf

Fazzone, Patrick B., “The Trans-Pacific Partnership –Towards a Free Trade Agreement of Asia Pacific?” Georgetown Journal of International Law, vol. 43, núm. 3, 2012, pp. 695-743.

Fishlow, Albert y Stephan Haggard, The United States and the Regionalization of the World Economy, París, Centro para el Desarrollo de la OCDE, 1992.

Fleury, Julien Sylvestre y Jean-Michele Marcoux, “The US Shaping of State-Owned Enterprise Disciplines in the Trans-Pacific Partnership”, Journal of International Economic Law, vol. 19, núm. 2, 2016, pp. 445-465.

FMI: Fondo Monetario Internacional, “Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown?”, en World Economic Outlook. Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies, octubre de 2016, en http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/

Fraumeni, Barbara M., “E-Commerce: Measurement and Measurement Issues”, American Economic Review, vol. 91, núm. 2, 2001, pp. 318-322.

Freeland, Chrystia, Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else, Nueva York, Penguin Press, 2012.

Freeman, Robert A., “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Pharmaceutical Innovation”, Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy, vol.12, núm. 4, 2016, pp. 633-637.

Froman, Michael, “President’s Obama’s 2015 Trade Policy Agenda”, Audiencia frente al Comité de finanzas del Senado, núm. 114-160, 114 legislatura, 27 de enero de 2015, en http://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/98343.pdf

Freund, Caroline, “Other New Areas: Customs Administrations and Trade Facilitation, Anticorruption, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, and More”, en Jeffrey J. Schott y Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs (eds.), Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Volume 2: Innovations and Trading Rules, Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE Briefing 16-4, 2016.

Galván, Lilia, “Aprobar el TPP para modificar TLCAN: Guajardo”, El Economista, 9 de septiembre de 2016, en: http://eleconomista.com.mx/video/economista-tv/2016/09/09/aprobar-tpp-modernizar-tlcan-guajardo

Garduño, Silvia e Isabella González, “Dejar el TLC, última opción”, Reforma, Primera, 25 de enero de 2017, p. 6.

Gascón, Verónica, Ulises Díaz y Frida Andrade, “Afirma IP estar lista para negociar”, Reforma, 21 de enero de 2016.

Gilpin, Robert, Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order,Princeton, University Press, 2001.

Goldstein, Judith, Ideas, Interests and American Trade Policy, Ithaca, NY-London, Cornell University Press, 1993.

______ y Robert Gulotty, “America and Trade Liberalization: The Limits of Institutional Reform”, International Organization, vol. 68, núm. 2, 2014, pp. 263-295.

Groser, Tim, “Presentación en el panel «Orígenes y Perspectivas del TPP»”, Foro Global de Alto Nivel del Tratado de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP), México, Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales, 12 de septiembre de 2016.

Grueber, Lloyd, Ruling the World: Power Politics and the Rise of Supranational Institutions,Princeton, University Press, 2000.

“Guajardo dice que México no aceptará nuevos aranceles”, El Financiero, 21 de febrero de 2017, en http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/econo mia/no-abriremos-la-caja-de-pandora-de-los-aranceles-en-el-tlcan-mexico.html

Harbinson, Stuart, “The Doha Round: Death Defying Agenda or Don’t Do it Again?” European Centre for International Political Economy, documento de trabajo núm. 10/2009, septiembre de 2009, en http://ecipe.org/publications/the-doha-round-a-death-defying-act/

Henckels, Caroline, “Protecting Regulatory Autonomy through Greater Precision in Investment Treaties: The TPP, CETA and TTIP”, Journal of International Economic Law, vol. 19, núm. 1, 2016, pp. 27-50.

Hendrix, Cullen S., Protectionism in the 2016 Elections: Causes and Consequences, Truths and Fictions, Peterson Institute for International Economics, PB 16-20, noviembre de 2016, en https://piie.com/system/files/do cuments/pb16-20.pdf

Hillary Clinton for President, “Manufacturing: Hillary Clinton’s Plan to Strengthen Manufacturing”, en https://www.hillaryclinton.com/is-sues/manufacturing/

“Hillary Clinton says she does not support Trans-Pacific Partnership”, PBS Newshour, 7 de octubre de 2016, en http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/hillary-clinton-says-she-does-not-support-trans-pacific-part-nership/

Hoekman, Bernard M. y Petros C. Mavroidis, “A Very Brief History of the Trading System”, en World Trade Organization: Law, Economics, and Politics, Londres, Routledge, 2a ed., 2016, pp. 9-17.

______ y L. Alan Winters, “Multilateralizing Preferential Trade Agreements: A Developing Country Perspective”, en Richard Baldwin y Patrick Low, Multilateralizing Regionalism: Challenges for the Global Trading System,Cambridge, University Press, 2008, pp. 636-680.

Hoover, Herbert, “Message Regarding the Smoot-Hawley Act”, 16 de junio de 1930, en https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presiden-tial-speeches/june-16-1930-message-regarding-smoot-hawley-tariff -act

Horn, Henrik, Petros C. Mavroidis y André Sapir, “Beyond the WTO? An Anatomy of EU and US Preferential Trade Agreements”, World Economy, vol.33, núm. 11, 2010, pp. 1565-1588.

Huang, Jon, Samuel Jacoby, K. K. Rebecca Lai y Michael Strickland, “Election 2016: Exit Polls”, New York Times, 8 de noviembre de 2016, en http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/elec-tion-exit-polls.html

Hubner, Kurt, ceta: The Making of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the EU,Institut Français de Relations Internationales, Canada Program, abril de 2016.

Hufbauer, Gary Clyde y Jeffrey J. Schott, nafta Revisited: Achievements and Challenges, con la colaboración de Paul L. E. Grieco y Yee Wong, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2005.

_____ y Jeffrey J. Schott, “Fitting Asia – Pacific Agreements into the wto System”, en Richard Baldwin y Patrick Low, Multilateralizing Regionalism: Challenges for the Global Trading System, Cambridge, University Press, 2008, pp. 554-635.

______ , “The Evolving US View on the TPP”, Stanford Center for International Development, documento de trabajo núm. 484, septiembre de 2013, en http://scid.stanford.edu/?q=/system/files/shared/do-cuments/TPP%20Stanford%20Sept2013%20270913_WP484.pdf

______y Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs, “How will tpp and ttip Change the wto System?”, Journal of International Economic Law, vol. 18, núm. 3, 2015, pp. 679-696.

______, “Investor-State Dispute Settlement”, en Jeffrey J. Schott y Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs (eds.), Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Volume 1: Market Access and Sectoral Issues. Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE Briefing 16-1, 2016.

“Impuesto fronterizo de Trump viola las reglas de la OMC”, El Economista, 17 de marzo de 2017, en http://eleconomista.com.mx/internacio-nal/2017/03/17/impuesto-trump-viola-reglas-omc-guajardo

______“Interview with Donald Trump: Transcript”, The Economist, 11 de mayo de 2017, en http://www.economist.com/Trumptranscript

Irwin, Douglas A., Free Trade Under Fire, Princeton, University Press, 4a ed., 2015.

James, Harold, The End of Globalization: Lessons from the Great Depression, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 2001.

Jervis, Robert, “Introduction: Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy”, Political Science Quarterly, vol.131, núm. 2, 2016, pp. 217-236.

Jones, Kent, Reconstructing the World Trade Organization for the 21st Century: An Institutional Approach, Oxford, University Press, 2014.

Kalach, Moisés, “Presentación en el panel «Oportunidades para el sector privado: cadenas globales de valor en los mercados del TPP»”, Foro Global de Alto Nivel del Tratado de Asociación Transpacífico, Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales, México, 12 de septiembre de 2016, en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD30OefRkss&t =8692s

Kawanami, Takeshi, “A TPP without the US? It’s being suggested”, Nikkei Asian Review, 13 de noviembre de 2016, en http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/A-TPP-without-the-US-It-s-being-suggested

Keohane, Robert y Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence, Nueva York, Longman, 3ª ed., 2001.

Kowalski, Przemyslaw, Max Buge, Monika Sztajerowska y Matias Egeland, State-Owned Enterprises: Trade Effects and Policy Implications, OCDE, documento de política comercial núm. 147, 2014.

Leonard, Jenny, “Mnuchin Downplays Tariff Threat, Calls tpp a Framework for nafta Changes”, Inside U.S. Trade, 27 de enero de 2017.

Lester, Simon, “Is the Doha Round Over? The wto’s Negotiating Agenda for 2016 and Beyond”, Free Trade Bulletin, núm. 64, 2016, en https://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/doha-round-over-wtos-negotiating-agenda-2016-beyond

Ljunggren, David, “Canada says tpp trade deal dead without United States”, Reuters, 24 de enero de 2017, en http://www.reuters.com/arti-cle/us-usa-trump-trade-canada-idUSKBN1582P3

Maggs, Gregory E., “Regulating Electronic Commerce”, American Journal of Comparative Law, vol.50, 2002, pp. 665-685.

Mansfield, Edward D. y Helen V. Milner, Votes, Vetoes, and the Political Economy of International Trade Agreements, Princeton, University Press, 2012.

Manyika, James, Susan Lund, Jacques Bughin, Jonathan Woetzel, Kalin Stamenov y Dhruv Dhingra, Digital Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows, McKinsey Global Institute, marzo de 2016.

Marcial Pérez, David, “El mundo empresarial mexicano planta cara a Trump”, El País, 17 de noviembre de 2016, en http://economia.el-pais.com/economia/2016/11/18/actualidad/1479435474_777348.html

“Mexican Official: Dispute Settlement, Labor Mobility Key Items on NAFTA Wish List”, Inside U.S. Trade,25 de enero de 2017.

“México, a la espera de la notificación para iniciar plática formal sobre tratado de libre comercio”, Grupo Fórmula, 14 de mayo de 2017, en http://www.radioformula.com.mx/notasimp.asp?Idn=683653

“Mexico minister signals changes to rules of origin in nafta talks”, Reuters,2 de febrero de 2017, en http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-mexico-nafta-idUSKBN15H320, consultado el 16.V.2017.

Milanovic, Branko, Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 2016.

Miles, Tom, “Pacific Trade Deal Could Limit Affordable Drugs: World Health Chief”, Reuters, 12 de noviembre de 2015, en http://www.reuters.com/article/trade-tpp-health-idUSL8N13737R20151112

Miner, Sean, “Commitments on State-Owned Enterprises”, en Jeffrey J. Schott y Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs (eds.), Assessing the Trans-Pacific Part-nership. Volume 2: Innovations and Trading Rules, Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE Briefing 16-4, 2016.

Misión de la Unión Europea en Estados Unidos, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Creating Jobs, Boosting Exports, and Investing in the Economy of Tomorrow, 2013, en http://www.euintheus.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/TTIP_Publicatiopn_85x11in_High_res.pdf

Mora, Luz María de la, México en el acuerdo estratégico transpacífico de asociación económica, México, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, 2013. (Serie Memorias DEI, 1).

Morales, Roberto, “Se excluye México del Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP)”, El Economista, 15 de noviembre de 2010, en http://eleconomista.com.mx/industrias/2010/11/15/se-excluye-mexico-acuerdo-asociacion-transpacifico-ttp

Navarro, Peter, “Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory & Energy Policy Impacts”, DonaldJTrump.com., 29 de septiembre de 2016, en https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/Trump_Economic_Plan.pdf

“Notable Barriers and Impediments to Digital Trade”, en USITC, Digital Trade in the U.S. and Global Economies, Part 1, publicación núm. 44415, investigación núm. 332-531, julio de 2013.

Office of the United States Trade Representative, “Bipartisan Trade Deal”, mayo de 2007, en https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/facts-heets/2007/asset_upload_file127_11319.pdf,

______ “E-Commerce fta Chapters”, 2016, en https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/ services-investment/telecom-e-commerce/e-commerce-fta- chapters

OMC: Organización Mundial del Comercio, “Declaración Ministerial de Ginebra sobre comercio electrónico global”, 1998, en https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/ecom_e/mindec1_e.htm

______ , “Facilitación del comercio – menos papeleo en la frontera”, 12 de febrero de 2014, en https://www.wto.org/spanish/thewto_s/minist_s/mc9_s/brief_tradfa_s.htm

______, Report on G20 Trade Measures,21 de junio de 2016, en https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news16_e/g20_wto_report_june16_e.pdf

______,“El comercio crecerá en 2016 al ritmo más lento desde la crisis financiera”, comunicado de prensa 779, 27 de septiembre de 2016, en https://www.wto.org/spanish/news_s/pres16_s/pr779_s.htm

Osa, Ralph, “Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data”, National Bureau of Economic Research, documento de trabajo núm. 17347, agosto de 2011.

Piketty, Thomas, Capital in the xxi Century, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 2014.

Poulsen, Lauge N., Jonathan Bonnitcha y Jason Yackee, Transatlantic Investment Treaty Protection,Center for European Policy Studies-Johns Hopkins University, reporte 102, 2015.

Presidencia de la República, “Con Estados Unidos ni confrontación ni sumisión; la solución es el diálogo y la negociación: Enrique Peña Nieto”, 23 de enero de 2017, en http://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/con-estados-unidos-ni-confrontacion-ni-sumision-la-solucion-es-el-dialogo-y-la-negociacion-enrique-pena-nieto

“Prevé Ildefonso Guajardo que México salga del TLCAN”, El Universal, 24 de enero de 2017, en http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/car-tera/economia/2017/01/24/preve-ildefonso-guajardo-que-mexico-salga-de-tlcan

Price Waterhouse Coopers, State-Owned Enterprises: Catalyst for Public Value Creation?,abril de 2015, en https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/psrc/pu-blications/assets/pwc-state-owned-enterprise-psrc.pdf

Rauchway, Eric, Great Depression and the New Deal: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford, University Press, 2008.

Rodrik, Dani, “The Political Trilemma of the World Economy”, en The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Nueva York-Londres, W. W. Norton & Company, 2011.

Rosenzweig, Francisco de, “México y su ingreso al Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico”, Revista de Derecho Económico Internacional, vol.3,núm. 1, 2012, pp. 89-94.

Rothkopf, David, Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World they are Making, Nueva York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux,2008.

Ruckert, Arne, Ashley Schram y Ronald Labonté, “The Trans-Pacific Part-nership Agreement: Trading Away our Health”, Canadian Journal of Public Health, vol.106, núm. 4, 2015, pp. 249-251.

Ruggie, John G., “International Responses to Technology: Concepts and Trends”, International Organization, vol. 29, núm. 3, 1975, pp. 557-583.

Salgado, Alicia, “Entrevista a Moisés Kalach”, Enfoque Noticias, 24 de enero de 2017, en http://www.enfoquenoticias.com.mx/emisiones/sobre-la-posible-renegociaci-n-del-tlcan-habla-mois-s-kalach-concamin

Saxonhouse, Gary R., “Regionalism and U.S. Trade Policy in Asia”, en Jagdish Bhagwati y Arvind Panagariya (eds.), The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements,Washington, DC, AEI Press, 1996, pp. 108-135.

Schott, Jeffrey J., Barbara Kotschwar y Julia Mir, Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2013. (Policy Analyses in International Economics, 99).

______, “TPP and the Environment”, en Jeffrey J. Schott y Cathleen Ci-mino-Isaacs (eds.), Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Volume 2: Innovations and Trading Rules, Peterson Institute for International Economics, PIIE Briefing 16-4, 2016.

______, “TPP could go forward without the United States”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 15 de noviembre de 2016, en https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/tpp-could-go-forward-without-united-states

Secretaría de Economía, Memorias documentales 2006-2012. Dirección General de Negociaciones Multilaterales y Regionales: Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico,2013, en http://www.economia.gob.mx/files/transpa-rencia/informe_APF/memorias/14_md_tpp_sce.pdf

Selser, Irene, “Sin TPP hay riesgo de volver al proteccionismo: Jaime Zabludovsky”, Milenio, 9 de septiembre de 2016, en http://www.milenio.com/internacional/TPP-proteccionismo-Jaime_Zabludovsky Acuerdo_de_Asociacion_Transpacifico_0_806919316.html

Senado de la República, Acuerdo de la mesa directiva por el que se establece el proceso de análisis y discusión del Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico, 63 legislatura, en http://www.senado.gob.mx/comisiones/desarrollo_rural/docs/tpp/AcuerdoProcesoTTP.pdf

______ , “Audiencias públicas del Tratado de Asociación Transpacífico”, 63 legislatura, en http://www.senado.gob.mx/hoy/tpp2016/index.php

Seng Lee, Kha, Tahir M. Khan y Long Chiau Ming, “Review of Data Exclusivity Provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement”, Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy, vol.12, núm. 4, 2016, pp. 545-547.

Serra, Jaime, El TLCY la formación de una región. Un ensayo desde la perspectiva mexicana, México, Fondo de Cultura Económica, 2015.

Severns, Maggie, “Trump pins NAFTA, «worst trade deal ever», on Clinton”. Politico, 26 de septiembre de 2016, en http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-clinton-come-out-swinging-over-nafta-228712

Shabot, Ezra, “Entrevista a Juan Pablo Castañón”, MVS Noticias, 15 de abril de 2017, en http://www.noticiasmvs.com/#!/entrevistas/terce-ra-emision-con-ezra-shabot/nos-interesa-que-el-tlcan-siga-siendo-de-los-3-paises-cce-662

Siroen, Jean Marc, “Labor Provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements: Current Practice and Outlook”, International Labour Review, vol.151, núm. 1, 2013, pp. 85-106.

Smeltz, Dina, Craig Kafura y Lily Wojtowicz, “Actually, Americans Like Free Trade”, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, septiembre de 2016, en https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/actually-americans-free-trade

Steil, Benn, The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White and the Making of the New World Order, Princeton, University Press, 2014.

Stiglitz, Joseph E., The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers our Future, Nueva York-Londres, W.W. North & Company, 2013.

______, El malestar en la globalización, México, Penguin Random House, 2015.

______, “Don’t Trade Away our Health”, New York Times, 30 de enero de 2016, en http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/opinion/dont-tra-de-away-our-health.html

Stokes, Bruce, “Republicans, especially Trump supporters, see free trade deals as bad for U.S.”, Pew Research Center, 31 de marzo de 2016, en http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/republicans-especially-trump-supporters-see-free-trade-deals-as-bad-for-u-s/

Subcomité de Comercio. Comité de Medios y Arbitrios del Congreso de Estados Unidos, Expanding U.S. Digital Trade and Eliminating Barriers to U.S. Digital Exports, 114º congreso, 2ª sesión, 13 de julio de 2016, en https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/20 160713TR-Transcript.pdf

Takenaka, Kiyoshi, “Japan PM says TPP trade pact meaningless without the U.S.”, Reuters, 21 de noviembre 2016, en http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-tpp-abe-idUSKBN13G2IK

Tamkin, Emily, “Trudeau Tells Trump He’s Ready to Renegotiate NAFTA”, Foreign Policy,10 de noviembre de 2016, en http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/10/trudeau-tells-trump-hes-ready-to-renegotiate-nafta/

The White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Presidential Memorandum Regarding Withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Agreement”, 23 de enero de 2017, en https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/23/ presi dential-memorandum-regarding-withdrawal-united-states-trans-pacific

Trump, Donald J., “A Message from President-Elect Donald J. Trump”, 21 de noviembre de 2016, en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xX_KaStFT8, consultado el 23.XI.2016.

Tyson, Alec y Shiva Maniam, “Behind Trump’s Victory: Divisions by Race, Gender, Education”, Pew Research Center, 9 de noviembre de 2016, en http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-tru mps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Report 2013. Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development, Nueva York y Génova, United Nations,2013.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce, “nafta Triumphant: Assessing two Decades of Gains in Trade, Growth and Jobs”, 2015.

USITC: United States International Trade Comission, Digital Trade in the U.S. and Global Economies, Part 1,publicación núm. 44415, investigación núm. 332-531, julio de 2013.

______, Digital Trade in the U.S. and Global Economies, Part 1, publicación núm. 44415, investigación núm. 332-531, julio de 2013.

______, Digital Trade in the U.S. and Global Economies, Part 2,publicación núm. 4485, investigación núm. 332-540, agosto de 2014.

______, “Economic Impact of Trade Agreements Implemented under Trade Authorities Procedures, 2016 Report”, investigación núm. 332-555, junio de 2016.

Van Harten, Gus, “Reforming the NAFTA Investment Regime”, en The Future of North American Trade Policy: Lessons from nafta,Boston University, Pardee Center, 2009.

Van Roozendaal, Gerda, “The Inclusion of Environmental Concerns in US Trade Agreements”, Environmental Politics, vol. 18, núm. 3, 2009, pp. 431-438.

Vaugh, Steven, Carta al Congreso de Estados Unidos, 4 de abril de 2017, en https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/us/pdf/2017/03/tnf-draft-nafta-letter.pdf

Vega, Gustavo, El Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte: visión retrospectiva y retos a futuro, México, El Colegio de México, 2010.

______, “Los mecanismos de resolución de controversias en el TLCAN y los acuerdos paralelos de cooperación ambiental: balance y perspectivas”, en México y Estados Unidos. La economía política del libre comercio. Antología, México, El Colegio de México, 2014, pp. 403-470.

“What Donald Trump means by fair trade”, The Economist, 13 de mayo de 2017, en http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21721935-idea-reciprocity-animates-white-houses-view-trade-what-donald-trump-means-fair

Willemyns, Ines, “Disciplines of State-Owned Enterprises in International Economic Law: Are we Moving in the Right Direction?”, Journal of International Economic Law, vol.19, núm. 3, 2016, pp. 657-680.

Williams, Brock R., “Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Countries: Comparative Trade and Economic Analysis”,Congressional Research Service, R42344, junio de 2013.

Woolcock, Stephen, “The Evolution of the International Trading System”, en Kenneth Heydon y Stephen Woolcock (eds.), The Ashgate Research Companion to International Trade Policy, Londres, Routledge, 2012, pp. 47-67.

World Economic Forum, Mega-regional Trade Agreements. Game-Changers or Costly Distractions for the World Trading System?, REF 160414, 2014.

Published

29-09-2017

How to Cite

Cánovas, G. V., & Campos Ortiz, F. E. (2017). Economic Integration in North America and the Election of Donald Trump: A Prospective Analysis on the Future of nafta. Foro Internacional, 52(4), 781–836. https://doi.org/10.24201/fi.v52i4.2470